Variability and delusions of precision

Abstract

Engineering construction projects are complex undertakings both as products and as processes for their realization, operation and disposal. However, the thinking, tools and techniques which are employed remain firmly embedded in reductionist determinism. The widespread criticisms of project and project management (realization) performances are hypothesized to be significantly attributable to distortions which are endemic in and occasioned by the ‘traditional’ perspectives and approaches. Underpinning assumptions include people knowing what they want, articulating those requirements and constraints, and communicating them effectively. Those requirements etc. are then, essentially, fixed as the basis for the project, despite the likelihood of their being incomplete, inconsistent and relating to one, or very few, primary stakeholders only. Fragmentation of industries and project organizations lend credence to the complexities of projects and the imperative of integration of the myriad specialists. Projects as complex adaptive systems co-evolve and are self-organizing along irreversible trajectories which are sensitive to initial conditions. Thus, sensemaking and reflective practices are vital in determining effective solutions. A pervading theme is the ‘fallacy of fixity’, in determining requirements, producing and using databases, and forecasting. Many ‘hard’ techniques are available for incorporating variability but the ‘soft’ considerations are instrumental in determining what is done, how and with what results. Incorporating ‘soft’ variabilities is fraught with issues of human perceptions, cognition and decision-making. This paper examines issues of variabilities in data and information and consequences for projects and organizations. Propositions that: (a) current perspectives and techniques fail to address variabilities adequately and so, false beliefs of precision of performance prediction arise; thus, (b) a paradigm shift is required from deterministic reductionism with assumptions of certainty, fixity and control to stochastic, holism, in which emergence, flexibility and self-organizing are accommodated in the project realities of ambiguity, variability and uncertainty—are supported but further, empirical research is needed as well as implementation of knowledge into practice.