Is there a room for optimism for the near-future enlargement of the European Union?

Abstract

The sense of optimism for the enlargement of the European Union in the near-future has been evaporating. A new strategy paper on EU enlargement which was issued by the European Commission in February 2018 seems to still be based on a ‘fatigue from expansion’ approach to enlargement, even though it states that Serbia and Montenegro ‘could potentially be ready for membership [by] 2025’. This paper discusses the bumpy road the Western Balkan states have faced towards EU accession from the early 2000s to the present day. In addition to more challenging domestic political and economic conditions, these states have also been required to meet tougher and more variable accession conditions in comparison to the post-communist states that joined the EU in and after 2004. The inconsistency and vagueness of the EU approach to the accession of the Western Balkan states remains the most important factor behind the continued postponements of their accession dates.