EU partners or EU members: EU enlargement in Moldova, Ukraine and the Western Balkans

Abstract

Following the 2004-2007 ‘Big Bang’ enlargement, the European Union turned away from further enlargement prospects. Projects such as the European Neighbourhood Policy were launched with the express goal of limiting enlargement and outstanding enlargement commitments were neglected. The EU’s apathy towards enlargement seemed to change in February 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine applied for membership four days after Russia’s invasion, with Moldova and Georgia following less than a week later. Four months later, the EU granted Moldova and Ukraine candidate status. As the EU claims that the accession process is merit-based, with a candidate’s progression being directly related to their compliance with the Copenhagen accession conditions, that raises two questions: Why did the EU so radically change its view on enlargement, and were Moldova and Ukraine treated favourably in the accession process?

Using a comparative framework to assess the candidacy progression of Moldova and Ukraine against four Western Balkan candidates - Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia – this paper argues that Moldova and Ukraine have been treated more favourably in the accession process, and that the reasons for this treatment cannot be attributed to superior compliance with the Copenhagen criteria.