Addressing Climate-Induced Water Supply Imbalance Through Inter-Basin Water Transfer Modelling: A Philippine Case Stud

Abstract

This study assesses the feasibility of an inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) system in the Philippines, designed to alleviate water scarcity by connecting the flood-prone Agusan River Basin, with an annual surplus of 4,647.43 million cubic meters (MCM), to the water-scarce Mananga River Basin in Cebu, currently facing a significant deficit. The proposed pipeline, approximately 412 kilometers long, aims to supply up to 63.9 MCM/yr. Hydraulic modeling and detailed geospatial analyses support the optimization of the pipeline route, minimizing environmental impact and construction costs while promoting sustainable development. The project is anticipated to create around 639 construction jobs and 142 operational positions, fostering local employment and economic development. It is projected to increase water availability in Cebu by 58.26 liters per capita per day, addressing the acute water scarcity that affects the region. Economic projections estimate substantial profits, with the IBWT system expected to generate a net present value of USD 194.04 million, highlighting its potential as a profitable and sustainable infrastructure investment. Finally, while environmental concerns may persist, these can be mitigated through currently existing hydropower infrastructure instead of fossil fuel utilization for pumping, reducing CO2 emissions from 14.85 tons to 0.51 tons of CO2 annually. Overall, this outlines a critical step toward long-term water security and climate-resilient infrastructure development in the Philippines