A Sustainable Solution to Water Scarcity: Modelling the feasibility of a Canada to Great Plains Water Pipeline

Abstract

The proposed water pipeline project presents a multifaceted feasibility analysis across economic, engineering, and future 
considerations. Economically, while the initial capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX) are  significant, they are seen as potentially viable within the $92 billion agricultural market of the Great Plains. A cost-management  strategy combining a pay-per-use model, public-private partnerships, and government grants will ensure equitable access.  However, looking throughout history, rejections like the North American Water and Power Alliance (NAWAPA), estimated at  $760 billion to $1.5 trillion in today’s dollars, highlight the political and economic hurdles of a project such as this. From an  engineering perspective, the pipeline is deemed technically feasible, with route optimization minimizing elevation changes, energy use, and distance. The annual energy and pumping costs are estimated at $58 million USD, with water services expected to reach 115,000 people across 40,000 properties. To cover these expenses, an average annual water bill of $1,400 USD per property is proposed. This model emphasizes the need to balance cost sustainability while ensuring affordable and equitable water access for various sectors. 

Challenges such as biofouling from invasive species like zebra mussels can be mitigated through filtration systems and HDPE materials, while pressure management and soil temperature considerations ensure stability. Nonetheless, reliance on renewable energy from Manitoba Hydro could strain resources due to reduced Nelson River flow, raising concerns about downstream hydropower and grid power demands.

Future directions include the potential scalability of the pipeline to the Southern Great Plains, contingent upon economic and geopolitical approvals. Environmental sustainability requires thorough groundwater recharge modelling and measures to 
mitigate salinity changes in Lake Winnipeg, as well as downstream effects on hydropower systems. The project also demands geopolitical cooperation, including amendments to the Boundary Waters Treaty, attention to Indigenous land rights, and 
alignment with Canadian water export policies. To enhance efficiency and social acceptance, technological advancements such as solar-powered pumping systems, real-time monitoring through AI integration, and IoT connectivity for smart Pipeline Inspection Gauges (PIGS) are proposed. These measures, coupled with a pay-per-use funding model and water treatment innovations, aim to address both operational risks and long-term sustainability. While the project holds promise, it faces significant engineering, political, and environmental challenges that must be carefully navigated.

Water scarcity poses a growing challenge to agriculture in semi-arid regions of the Great Plains, necessitating large-scale water transport solutions. However, the convergence of engineering challenges, geopolitical constraints, climate variability, and financial limitations continues to hinder the development of viable water transport solutions for this complex issue. This study proposes an optimised water pipeline from Lake Winnipeg, Canada to the Great Plains, USA (Lincoln, Nebraska) to supportagricultural sustainability semi-arid regions. We defined a viable water pipeline route using R-programming to perform geospatial mapping, incorporating real-word elevation data. Similarly, hydraulic modelling and analysis was performed using the Darcy-Weisbach and Hazen-William equations to estimate flow rates, pressure losses and pumping energy requirements. Meanwhile, linear programming in R was used to minimise pumping and maintenance costs to justify project feasibility. Lastly, a comprehensive climate impact and risk assessment was carried out to simulate evaporation loss, seasonal water variability and measure the likelihood of pipeline failure.